Impact Growth Capital Newsletter

The Davos Consensus: It’s a "Rupture”

Impact Growth Capital
January 26, 2026

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This week at IGC:
Why we believe global economic fracture is the new baseline and how our workforce housing strategy is built to perform in exactly this kind of environment.

How Geoeconomic Fracture Is Reshaping Risk and Where We’re Deploying Instead

"We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition."

That was Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at Davos this week and he wasn't alone in the assessment. two weeks ago, the World Economic Forum officially named geoeconomic confrontation the #1 global risk for 2026. Half of the leaders surveyed expect the next two years to be "turbulent" or "stormy."

The institutional consensus has finally caught up to reality: the era of frictionless global trade, cheap debt, and predictable supply chains is over.

What This Means for Capital Allocation

During my years in Air Force Special Operations, we operated under a core doctrine: Hope is not a course of action.

We didn't try to predict the exact day a conflict would start. We assessed risk and positioned assets to survive the worst-case scenario before it arrived.

I apply that same discipline to how we allocate capital at Impact Growth Capital.

While much of the market spent the last two years chasing yield and waiting for a return to "normal," we built a portfolio designed for exactly this environment domestic workforce housing with government-subsidized capital structures that protect the downside.

Why Workforce Housing Wins in a Fragmented World

When global supply chains fracture, domestic reliance increases. The workers who keep the economy running teachers, nurses, tradespeople, veterans cannot be outsourced. And they need places to live.

We don't view our portfolio as apartments. We view it as essential U.S. infrastructure.

Our thesis is simple: in a high-inflation, low-trust world, tangible assets with inelastic demand are the only true safe harbor. And when you pair that with capital stack structures that include Historic Tax Credits, C-PACE financing, and government grants, you get downside protection that most private equity real estate simply cannot offer.

The Advantage of Operating at Our Scale

The mega-funds represented at Davos are too large to pivot. They're exposed to global equities and massive commercial real estate drag.

Because we operate in the middle market, we can move with agility that institutional giants cannot match. We can exit and enter positions while they're still holding committee meetings.

Moving Forward

We're currently evaluating opportunities in markets that fit this domestic infrastructure thesis workforce housing in regions critical to the U.S. supply chain.

We're selective. We reject the majority of deal flow to ensure we only present opportunities that can withstand scrutiny in this new economic reality.

If you're looking to rebalance away from exposed equities and into private market alternatives, reply to this email or request access to our Investor Council below.

Stay disciplined.

Jesse

If you're reassessing your portfolio for a more volatile global environment, schedule a call with our team to explore current opportunities.